When the sun shines it is a pleasure to watch the hive of activity in the fields of rural Ireland showcasing what farming and food production is all about – farmers producing food and feed in order to make an income to allow rural businesses grow and evolve.

I travelled to Carbery near Ballineen in west Cork this week and the countryside was bustling with activity, with fields of first-cut silage harvested near Bandon, farmers sowing barley near Cork city, and many farmers feeding or managing grass crops along the way. As the world around us becomes more urbanised, fewer and fewer people understand the financial risk and workload that farmers have to undertake to produce a crop of wheat or barley, to ensile a crop of grass or to buy and sell livestock.

Weather and policy shape decisions that farmers make every day. No more than any other business, farmers who have the financial and technical knowledge to sustain and grow a business will survive and thrive. Since the removal of milk quotas over eight years ago, milk price and volumes produced have gone up and up. EU policy allowed milk production to grow and if it made sense at farm level, it happened.

Some climate activists would have you believe the Government forced farmers into producing more milk. The reality is if the farmer has the resources, and the willingness was there to take on the investment, then the model works. Well-managed co-ops lessen the risk for farmers and complete the business cycle.

The net effect is a positive contribution to the local economy and rural Ireland. The tightening of nitrates rules threatens that model. The first step in the dairy farmer reaction is to get more land to try and hold existing milk supply from the farm. The knock-on effect of this is that other farming sectors are getting squeezed.

This week, Siobhán Walsh outlines predictions for cereal tonnage based on industry data. It looks like the area and tonnage of grain will decline significantly for a variety of reasons. Changing crops means more area in oilseed rape and beans. More financial firepower means more land into grass to fuel the milk model. This is the main competition for land in the east and south of the country. If the tightening continues, the second step will be to increase yield per cow and push away from the grazed grass model. Moving away from this to housing cows indoors will lead to even bigger environmental and welfare demonstrations like we see playing out in the UK this week.

The stop-start stuttering on alternatives for land use such as forestry, organics, and energy production do little to instill confidence in farmers

Yes, the farming sector can improve, take on new technology and be more efficient in every way. However, change needs to be strategic and sustainable. As Lorcan Roche Kelly highlighted last week, evolving an energy business by shipping Brazilian woodchips into Foynes and from there to make a road trip to Edenderry makes little sense in the short, medium or long term.

Frustration

In the midlands and west, there is a deeper frustration on land use and it’s more the fear of the unknown and what the likes of rewetting will mean in coming years. This uncertainty makes some landowners uneasy and makes others freeze in the moment, unable to make a decision. So while the green transition and alternative income sources for farmers are talked about a lot, very few have a sound and practical business model.

Ultimately, it is economics that will drive decisions in the medium and long term at farm level. The stop-start stuttering on alternatives for land use such as forestry, organics, and energy production do little to instill confidence in farmers. Similarly, there are real practical difficulties to establishing anaerobic digestion where the competition for land is already hot. While it all might look good on paper, delivering it is more difficult.

So how does Government policy help the balance of land use and manage a transition? The first step is to assess where we are and look at the options. Earlier in the year, researchers in ATU Galway outlined some options. It’s high time we had some practical reality and financial implication analysis completed so those living and working in rural Ireland can plan a future.